The Growing London-Africa Connection

A prime suspect in the July 21 London bombing is arrested in Zambia, after having earlier spent time in South Africa. He reportedly entered Zambia through Zimbabwe. Two other suspects are originally from East Africa. Seems like a disturbing pattern, again highlighting the growing role of Sub-Saharan Africa in al Qaeda's emphasis and infrastructure.

The passage of Haroon Rashid Aswat through Zimbabwe should be of particular concern. The regime of Robert Mugabe is the successor to the regime of Charles Taylor in Liberia, and is rapidly becoming a functioning criminal enterprise that gives support and shelter to a range of international criminal organizations. If there is one state that is ideal for harboring al Qaeda, like Liberia before it, it is Zimbabwe, for all the same reasons: the ability of the regime to control entry and exist points, access to government perks such as diplmatic passports, protection by the security forces, and the other reasons failed states with authoritarian regimes attract these groups.

As in Liberia, it is a serious mistake to think Mugabe (or Taylor) has any ideological or religious affinity with al Qaeda or anyone else. They deal with al Qaeda for money, to get back at the outside world (particularly the United States) and because they can. One of the major misunderstandings of the FBI and CIA in the Liberia case was their thinking and telling me and others that a Taylor-al Qaeda convergence was impossible because Taylor was a Christian. Perhaps in the loosest possible way, but he was primarily about money, not religion. I hope the same misanalysis is not being applied in Zimbabwe.

Another important point: If people flee to southern Africa, it is because there is an infrastructure there that can hide, move and protect them. One does not wander into Zimbabwe and Zambia in the hope of finding those things. The infrastructure exists as a safe harbor and arriving there is not an accident. Zambia has surfaced in several other al Qaeda cases, often with suspects tied to South Africa.

Not too long ago, my good friend Bobby Block, the intrepid Wall Street Journal correspondent in Southern Africa for many years, wrote about al Qaeda in Southern Africa and South Africa, as well as ties to the tanzanite trade in Tanzania. Guess what happened next? He was denounced not only by South Africa, but by the same agencies in this country that dismissed my work. Interesting how, a few years later it is clear that, had those warnings been heeded, perhaps the infrastructure in an abandoned continent would not have grown to the point of presenting a national security threat to the United States and Europe.