Sep 13, 17:36

Al Qaeda's Changing Strategy and Warnings of Attacks

Al Qaeda (meaning the core group led by bin Laden) seems to be adjusting its strategy in the wake of the relative success of Hezbollah in its recent war with Israel. Rather than letting Hezbollah and Shi’ite groups operate there alone with such greatly enhanced stature, the core al Qaeda leadership is working hard to regroup with an eye toward moving into more direct attacks on Israel and corrupt Islamic regimes.

The al Qaeda leadership appears to be concerned that Hezbollah’s ability to frontally attack the “Great Satan” of Israel and not only survive, but prosper politically around the Arab world, will undermine al Qaeda’s standing and that of its leadership.

As the Asia Times reports, the recent decision by Pakistan to negotiate a truce with the Taliban in several provinces has helped faciliate this by unblocking the flow of money to bin Laden and his network. While the Taliban may not be militarily active in those regions, in technical compliance with the terms of the agreement, the cessation of hostilities has made it far easier for bin Laden to regain his financial footing and project control further than he has been able to in some time. In fact, this consolidation has been going on for several months, taking advantage of the easing of Pakistani pressure during the negotiating process.

Earlier this week bin Laden’s chief deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, warned that the Persian Gulf and Israel woudl be the next al Qaeda targets. He has also repeatedly called on others to join in united Muslim efforts to fan the flames of unrest around the globe. This includes not only keeping the Afghan and Iraqi fronts open, but expanding the conflicts in Somalia, the Philippines, Sudan and elsewhere.

It is not hard to see U.S. forces are stretched to their limit. Another war cannot be handled by the current military structure. Nor is there political capital to spend on chasing far-away wars that seem peripheral to our security interests. This is the advantage the jihadis have. For decades Saudi-funded Wahhabist theology has spread like gasoline across much of the Muslim world. It will take a relatively small spark to get the flames going, especially when there is at least the perception on the street that once-invincible enemies (Israel) are suddenly vulnerable.

The al Qaeda leadership may be somewhat isolated, but they surely can read the international winds. With more money flowing, a strengthened Taliban, a resilient Iraqi insurgency, a resurgent Hezbollah and spreading Islamist pockets from Somalia to Sudan, the contours of a strategy to take advantage of this are not hard to see.

I do not believe Hezbollah and al Qaeda can or will form a durable alliance. But there is strong evidence to suggest that they have and will help each other tactically if conditions require it. This correlation of forces, coupled with al Qaeda’s repeated warnings to repent and turn to Allah-a key prerequisite to be fulfilled before an attack on infidels, as Mike Scheuer and others have recently correctly pointed out-point to a jihadi offensive of some strength.

posted by Douglas Farah

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    — saaz    Sep 13, 18:38    #

  2. I think Isreal has had the shock needed to redress the military balance between itself and the Arab militants. epecially Hesbollah. I believe the Isrealis will spend the next year or so revamping the training of both their active and reserve components. They have had their flirtation with air power alone, as a war winner, and gotten over that. The prospect of Hezbollah taking over the Lebanese government simplifies the whole South Lenanon problem. Any action taken by the terrorists will be an official act of the Lebanese government, and an act of war.

    I wonder, but certainly don’t know, that the creation of the Emirate of Wazeristan (sp), might give Pakistan cover for NATO operations in that area, without stepping on Pakistani pride.

    As for the U.S. Military, it is beginning to be spread thinner, if not all that thin. But additional operational needs (in Africa and Asia) might lead to an increase in it’s size, and possibly a draft. Or it may also lead to military alliances with major powers, such as Hindu India and Japan.

    I don’t see a draft coming from president Bush, but the next one may have little choise.


    — Wally Lind    Sep 14, 01:55    #

  3. I have heard some statements from your president Bush. He said that finding and destroying Al-Qaeda members, property, installations, etc. is a priority task of the Armed Forces. So, Iraq and Afghanistan offer the opportunity for Armed Forces to do their job. I haven’t heard US military complaining about that. Why everybody else does ?

    Another thing. I understand that AQ has communication problem. Could it be that those tapes carry some coded messages to individuals and groups. I don’t bother to watch the tapes, but I know that there is a lot of BS and nonsense on each one. Could it be that that nonsense hides a message ?

    DG


    — Drazen Gemic, Zagreb, Croatia    Sep 14, 09:03    #

  4. Expanding the scope of the worldwide jihad would, unfortunately, play into al-Qaeda’s strengths. Eliminating the Christians and animists in Africa, purging the remaining jews and christians in the middle east, and fomenting civil war against the remaining non-Muslims in Malaysia. A war so vast in scope geographically that the US can’t bring its superior firepower to bear on the problem, because there’s no centralized locus of violence or control.


    — Bob Smith    Sep 14, 10:52    #

  5. The biggest key to Hezbollah’s success has been their battle for the hearts and minds of the citizens that they live and work with. Hezbollah has consistantly been out there with schools, food, living assistance and health care. So when the time came, the citizen’s returned the support. Here’s my question: who is going to suggest to the Al-Qaeda leadershp that they go back to building roads and doing pediatric surgery if they want the financial and material support of citizens anywhere?

    Imho, the nihilism of Al-Qaeda will burn itself out without tangible good works to sustain it over the long term. I suspect that’s why Hezbollah was cool to the show of support from Zawahiri. They don’t need Al-Qaeda for anything. And certainly the citizens that Hezbollah lives and works with don’t need Al-Qaeda. They need Hezbollah. It’ll be interesting to see if Zawahiri figures this one out and can get his jihadists to adapt. Personally, I think not.


    — vachon    Sep 14, 17:06    #

  6. To vachon:

    I believe that the Hizballah and AQ are very different kinds of organizations.

    Hizballah is an Iranian subsidiary. Iran has ambition to become a world superpower. The role they are playing is similar to role of Soviet Union in 80’s. Soviets also sponsored some terrorist organizations. Iran and Hizballah are living in the real world and trying to take advantage of the circumstances.

    On the other hand, AQ is a terrorist organization, living in the dream world. They are trying to turn the world into something that some kind of “Islamic utopia”. Their goals are vague, unrealistic, and they don’t seem to care. The same applies to their methods.

    So there are, and there will be no “harts and minds” campaigns from AQ.

    DG


    — Drazen Gemic, Zagreb, Croatia    Sep 15, 12:40    #

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