Lessons Learned in 2006
The primary lesson I take away from 2006 is that we often do not believe what we see in front of us, to our own detriment and danger.
The most obvious example is the Islamist triumph in Somalia, begun in the middle of the year, yet receiving virtually no serious policy attention until very recently. It is hard to fathom why a self-proclaimed Islamist-Salafist movement, clear it is aims, could be viewed as a secondary concern. While the bedrock support for the movements is clan-based and the Islamic Courts enjoy some popular support for restoring law and order, there appears to have been little creative thinking as to how to counter-balance the more radical elements.
Now we face a series of bad options. Ethiopia may drive the Islamist groups out of Mogadishu, but Somalia is already viewed by much of the Islamist community as another attempt to establish the beginnings of the Caliphate. Foreign fighters, along with the Somalis, will likely prolong the fight through guerrilla warfare long into the future. It sets up a clear (in the jihadi mind, at least) conflict between Christian/Jewish Crusaders and Islam, a huge drawing card for the Islamist movement. This means the whole Horn of Africa is now in danger of a spreading war that can, in the end, only help those who profit from chaos and unaccountability.
By failing to see what was happening in Somalia, and failing to act once it was clear even from far outside, what was happening, we allowed the Islamist project to expand it ways it predicted it would, giving not only physical sanctuary to the enemy but a huge psychological victory as well. Hard to imagine how that happened, after the lessons Afghanistan supposedly taught us.
The second example is related to the first. There are still few people who read what the jihadis tell us about what they want to do and how they will do it.
It is like having a blueprint for enemy actions, but refusing to read it, even as the enemy systematically follows it. There are serious efforts to read and translate the massive amount of literature and thinking the Islamists put out, but to most top decision makers, the jihadis remain an enigma or their motivations are distorted and simplied.
A third lesson is that the global situation is deteriorating for those who oppose the expansion of the Islamist project. If we don’t understand it, we end up with the current piecemeal, haphazard approach that has no core mission and little coherence.
A fourth lesson is that the central problem outside the direct armed conflict with the jihadist movements has yet to be addressed, more than five years after 9-11.
This is the billions of dollars spent in government sponsored efforts to spread wahhabism around the world. This is the funding of radicalism, the push factor that goes with the pull factors of alienation, poverty etc., but a factor that is seldom on the policy agenda with Saudi Arabia and others.
It is the financing, ultimately, of the great anti-American, anti-Western surge by people looking for answers. It is, then, ultimately, the financing of the radicalism that will lead some percentage of these millions and millions of people who receive this message, to join the active, violent jihadist structure.
David Aufhauser, former general counsel at the Treasury Department who led the initial efforts to cut of terrorist funding, said several years ago that this tactic of funding wahhabism while denying responsibility for terrorist attacks was akin to spreading gasoline and lighting a match in a forest and denying responsibility for the ensuing forest fire. He was right.
A final lesson is that there are many courageous, intelligent people risking their lives and reputations by doing serious work to illuminate these issues, both inside and outside of government. Those inside the government are often shunned and marginalized, those outside targetted more openly by the Islamists who hate to see any push back against their years of effort to build a respectable facade. To all of them, I owe a debt of gratitude.
On a personal note, thanks to all who take the time to read this blog, write intelligent comments and let me know when I get it wrong. It is a pleasure and an honor to engage is this type of discussion.
For 2007, onward. The struggle is only beginning, and we owe it to ourselves and our children to fight the good fight. See you there.
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The War in Somalia Expands as Islamists Promised Somalia: The Next Step?
Thanks for a terrific site. Enjoy your holidays.
— vachon Dec 27, 15:27 #
I agree with you 100%.
Your second example about the blueprint it right on!!
Great blog!
— Cranky Greg Dec 27, 16:34 #
You said:
“It is hard to fathom why a self-proclaimed Islamist-Salafist movement, clear it is aims, could be viewed as a secondary concern.”
I think it’s a matter of prioritizing. And it’ll be a “long war”.
GWOT management capability is not unlimited; and certainly Iraq and then Iran must get the bulk of its attention. There is also the matter of the political battle for public opinion (that’s not going well).
Somalia, (and Waziristan) without many resources, have much less capability for Islamist mischief than (e.g.) oil exporters, and can thus take a secondary position in the queue.
I do not know what CTF-HOA is doing these days, particularly in training of local militaries to deal with Islamists, but we can hope that whatever it is, they are ramping it up to at least keep pace with ICU growth ¬– and with luck to enable a purely local solution at some point.
There are also the advantages of staying under the world media’s radar, thus allowing some necessary but “not nice” things to happen much more easily. That especially means keeping any American involvement out of sight for as long as possible.
— Tom Paine Dec 27, 16:49 #
I often read your posts and others at Counterterrorism. Very insightful and unfortunately alarming.
I wonder whether Jews actually allied with the Crusaders, or showed a bit of solidarity with the Muslims.
Below is an interesting thread at Centerfield with comments from “Bobby” who knows a bit about the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan first hand.
link: hxxp://www.centristcoalition.com/blog/archives/003643.html
Let’s hope 2007 is less about denial and more about solidarity against several threats to Liberal Democracy.
I think another lesson is that tactics without strategy can easily lead to failure. Failure influences public perception and creates a blowback that can impede action. In the war we are facing, perceptions and public relations play a significant role.
— Maxtrue Dec 27, 17:42 #
I think Maxtrue is right-on terms of public perceptions and public relations.
I am hoping for a balanced discussion in 2007 as an anedote to war- and fear-mongering i.e. war-mongering, IMO, is the destruction of any talk of global peacebuilding and fear-mongering is, IMO, the destruction of reasonable and balanced discussion re: counterterrorism measures.
And the counterterrorism measures that I am talking about include military, political, economic and technological efforts directed at the “marginalization” of terrorist groups.
In other words, let us find ways to cripple terrorist ops but also, let us do all we can to restore majority status to those Muslims who are advocates of nonviolent means.
Radical Islam has risen and fallen before – let us precipitate the fall.
— Philip Henika Dec 27, 18:24 #
”...but to most top decision makers, the jihadis remain an enigma or their motivations are distorted and simplied.”
Nice intro to a question that’s been worrying me lately. What does our leadership know? What do the Congressmen and Senators really understand? What do decision makers in the administration understand? What about George W.? Nancy? Biden? Lugar? Warner? Boxer?....
These people will have to get it figured out and inform the American people or we’re screwed. I don’t look to the MSM for any depth, so, it’ll have to be our leaders.
This question is certainly worthy of some research but, how does one go about asking a Senator to find Saudi Arabia on a map or sit for a 3 hour quiz?
Maybe I’ll end up accepting Daniel Pipe’s conclusion in a remarkable status report he posted yeaterday: “How the West Could Lose”
http://www.danielpipes.org/article/4227
Not very hopeful!
— MelM Dec 27, 20:32 #
Dear Mr. Farah,
Somalia is back in the hands of the government. Ethiopia is still in there. Capitol of Somalia Captured! (http://knickerbockernews.blogspot.com/2006/12/capitol-of-somalia-captured.html)
(For some reason, I am unable to use Haloscan to trackback from CounterTerrorism Blog. Hmm…) Have a great day.
— Rosemary Dec 28, 18:46 #
Mr Farah,
Seems like the Ethiopians are serving as a “proxy force” for Western interests in Somalia…Do you think we are involved behind the scenes and would it make a difference even if we were/are?
— verballistic Dec 28, 23:14 #
Tell me which ones are the warlords and which ones are the terrorists again?
— vachon Dec 29, 17:09 #
Thank you for keeping us informed. My main worry is that too many of us are quite clueless as to the danger we face. We will be “driving” the Trojan horse ourselves, and only realize that we are assisting in our destruction, at the very last second.
I am seriously considering learning how to handle a firearm in case the struggle becomes every man or woman for him or herself!
— Belle Dec 31, 22:48 #
Someone had mentioned in a comment section in a different thread about some wishful thinking – motivated concept of “visualizing peace” or some other nonsenese.
Muslims are not to give the salutation of peace to Khafirs. Which makes sense since the non-believers are by definition living in Dar-Es-Harb
http://islamqa.com/index.php?ref=4975&ln=eng&txt=Salaam
Quote (the lack of line breaks is in the source and it doesnt deserve any effort to make pretty, so sorry it’s one big paragraph):
Muslim reported in his Saheeh (14/144) from Anas ibn Maalik that the Messenger of Allaah (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) said: “When the People of the Book say salaam to you (greet you by saying al-salaamu alaykum), say ‘Wa ‘alaykum’ (and unto you).’” According to another report, he was asked, “The People of the Book say salaam to us. How should we respond?” He said, “Say, ‘Wa ‘alaykum.’” According to another report (14/164), he said, “When the Jews greet you, they say ‘al-saam ‘alaykum (death be upon you). So say ‘ ‘alayk (upon you).’” According to another report he said, “So say, ‘wa ‘alayk’ (and upon you).” According to another report (14/146) a group of Jews asked for permission to enter upon the Messenger of Allaah (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him), and they said, “Al-saam ‘alaykum (death be upon you).” ‘Aa’ishah said, “Bal ‘alaykum al-saam wa’l-la’nah (No, death be upon you and curses)!” The Messenger of Allaah (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) said, “O ‘Aa’ishah, Allaah loves gentleness in all things.” She said, “Did you not hear what they said?” He said, “I answered, ‘Wa ‘alaykum (and unto you).’” According to another report, he said, “I answered, ‘ ‘alaykum’” – without the “waw” (i.e., wa meaning “and”). According to the last hadeeth (14/148), he said, “Do not initiate the greeting of salaam with the Jews and Christians, and if you meet one of them on the road, push him to the narrowest part of it.”
— Vince Pacella Jan 1, 06:00 #