The Shifting Balance in the al Qaeda/Salafist Structure
The Los Angeles Times has a story laying out what my sources have been saying for some time: The al Qaeda affiliates in Iraq are now in a more dominant position within the overall al Qaeda structure, in part because of the Iraq organization’s ability to generate funds.
While there are still foreign fighters in the Afghan-Pakistan region, most foreign combatant are choosing Iraq for their combat experience. The Afghanistan conflict is dominated by the Taliban, and there is tension between the Arab fighters and the resurgent Pashtun-dominated group.
This is in part because the Taliban remains focused on its local conflict rather than global jihad objectives. The Taliban is not overly welcoming of outsiders, with many feeling they lost their control of Afghanistan because of al Qaeda.
Yes, the groups are still willing to protect bin Laden, Zawahiri et al, out of loyalty and the recognition that their capture would be a blow, at least psychologically, to the entire range of jihadist movements. As a result, the bin Laden/Zawahiri trail appears to have gone completely cold.
In contrast, the Iraq-based al Qaeda groups are the vanguard of the violent international jihadist movement that is directly fighting American troops in a battle that has attracted the eyes of the world.
As a result, the Iraqi movements are drawing the financial backing of supporters across the Gulf as well as the new recruits. Financial backers like visible results, and Iraq is where there is a bigger bang for the buck, so to speak.
As I have noted previously, this ability to attract the best and brightest recruits, as well as cash, is also causing tension with the international Muslim Brotherhood, particularly in Europe.
The more politically-oriented Brotherhood, intent on establishing political enclaves and pushing an Islamist political agenda, is often losing the recruitment battle to groups who can promise combat experience in Iraq and a chance to kill infidels.This income of the Iraqi groups may be supplemented by other criminal activities such as kidnappings and robberies, although there is no consensus on how engaged the al Qaeda forces are in this.
This shift has far-reaching implications, some of which were touched on by my friend Jonathan Winer.
I would add that this shift, given the fluidity of movement and technology transfers among the jihadist groups will favor the strategy of starting many different wars and small, semi-autonomous, radicalized groups, as opposed to large-scale, mass attacks.
That would hold true unless one of the emerging groups decided to shoot to the top of the “branding game” as Winer outlines by trying something spectacular. This could change the jihadi landscape quickly and radically.
Within the past six years the Salafist/jihadi movement has gone through several interations that show how flexible and adaptable the global movement is. The question is whether we are anywhere near being able to keep up.
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I Agree with your analysis, but al Qaeda in Messopotamia stands to lose a lot of credability in Iraq, if Salafists continue to defect.
It’s no longer important to see who is giving the orders.
There strategy and methods are well established, and the inidividual al Quadea organizations will carry them out.
They have a lot of work to do in their local countires before who is the “hot al Qaeda branch” gets in the way.
The key question is: where are the recruits going to go after Iraq?
My guesses:
The Palestinian Territories. I believe it is al Qaeda who has used this Hamas Palestinian Authjority infighting.
the transltated letter you referred to last week, Doug, suggests as much.
-Somalia, CHAD, Mali, Burkina Faso,Liberia,now that the diamond embargo is off. Algeria and Northern Cameroon.
Intelligence question: are training camps expanding in the DR of Congo?
— Shimron Issachar May 21, 13:56 #
If the reports of what we’ve seen in Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank are accurate, it seems that al Qaeda is already making their move into the Levant. My guess is that they are getting ahead of themselves, figuring that Iraq is a fait accompli, and are moving on to their next objective.
— Colin May 21, 15:52 #
I heard 2 years ago when I was still in the housing business that there’s some real big money that’s known this day would come. They have gone back to the stock market with gusto, but they have also quietly accumulated and pooled funds to buy up a lot of the coming foreclosures. If the stock market goes down again (probably because of China) or falters for whatever reason watch the dirty money come around again, too. And this time there’ll be a lot less scrutiny on the buyers since they will be bailing out the banks as well as making a buck.
My guess is those banks that are already cozy with dirty money and domestic organized crime will be in a pretty good position to ride out these bad loans. Not every property will be covered 100%, but the bank’s losses will be far less than they would normally be. Remember, the bank doesn’t want the house, they want the cash. Watch banks like Credit Swisse and Citibank post nominal losses, if losses at all in the near future.
— vachon May 21, 17:14 #
Doug: check this out!
http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=9040
— Dale in Atlanta May 22, 10:03 #
I Checked it out, Dale, Thanks. It looks like the Story is illustrating Doug’s point.
Maybe al Qaeda has gotten so large, and some groups so infuencial that the franchises may try to take over the company….
— Shimron Issachar May 22, 13:59 #
I am afraid that original Al-Qaeda has fullfilled their initial goals, to establish jihad as a political option.
Bin Laden has not been seen or heard a long time, and even Zawahiri tapes are not so frequent theese days. The PR role of original AQ is not that important any more, too.
So what is AQ veterans doing today ? Have they retired ? Not likely. I thought that they have something with redistributing the funds, but this article shows that the jihad groups are doing the fundraising themselves.
— Drazen Gemic May 23, 08:02 #
Perhaps we should list the factors that aided the growth of Jihadist violence.
One, of course, is longevity. The history is similiar to organized crime in which a Godfather chooses roles for the next generation. The failure to capture or kill or determine the fate of OBL or Zawahiri has enhanced Al Qaeda’s longevity to a point where ideology, finances and methods are passed on.
Two, the carte’ blanche use of Internet has enhanced recruitment and sent messages. Also, media is such that the plug wasn’t pulled when it needed to be e.g. OBL addressing the World on Oct. 9, 2001 while WTC stlll smouldered.
Three, privatization has usurped public service and counterterrorism measures directed toward the common folk have been logjammed.
Fourth, policy and actions on America’s part have empathsized the military solution to counterterrorism but a global peacebuilding initiative has been virtually nonexistant.
These are a few factors that have contributed, in my opinion, to growth and global spread of Jihadist violence and unrest.
— Philip Henika May 23, 12:50 #
Philip, do you mind explaining what does it mean by “plug wasn’t pulled” on media ?
I think that anti western attitude exists in Muslim world for some 15 centuries, or so. Jihad is just the most explicit form. Many jihad supporters just hate West, I think, they don’t want jihad in their own neighbourhood.
DG
— Drazen Gemic May 23, 13:26 #
Philip;
Check these 7 Points out:
http://shimronletters.blogspot.com/2007/05/7-point-to-plan-to-defeat-al-qaeda.html
I’m interested in your thoughts
— Shimron Issachar May 23, 14:31 #
I agree to the points, in general. Point 1. is referring to Afghanistan and Iraq, obviously. Invasion is not easy for anybody, neither invader nor invaded. I believe that both operations were unavoidable, and we can discuss it if you wish.
I agree with point 3., but it does not change the fact that average Middle Eastern Muslim does not like West, as well as her/his ancestors.
Point 4. is interesting, and it needs to be explained deeper. Open Source is a term that describes a software written under certain type of license. That is probably not what author ment. He might have ment Internet in general, or some encrypted private networks like Freenet (www.freenet.org), or use of virtual private networking (VPN) protocols.
Point 5. could lead to point 1. (invasion). The process can never be 100% controlled.
Point 6. and 7. Muslims in Europe and America often complain that West supports dictators in their countries of origin. They say that common people no other option but extremism in order to resist opression. Well, I am not able to see democratic alternative in those countries. Democratic attitudes might exist among Muslims in Europe, America or Australia, but I simply can’t see any in the countries of origin. Who is there to talk to ?
— Drazen Gemic May 23, 17:10 #
Drazen:
CNN should not have reported in OBL’s speech:
http://archives.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/central/10/07/ret.binladen.transcript/
Similiar non-reporting should have occurred re:
the motivations of the killer at Virgina Tech this year. And the media actually admitted it was mistaken in doing so.
— Philip Henika May 23, 18:53 #
“There must be some way out of here,” said the joker to the thief,
“There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief.
Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth,
None of them along the line know what any of it is worth.”
Bob Dylan, All Along the Watchtower
I agree with you wholeheartedly with ‘in and out as quickly and effectively as we can’ both in a military and peacebuilding context.
The Dylan quote is meant to convey what it is like when one stays too long.
Finally, the ASEAN conference in SE Asia this last winter derived a similiar ‘checklist’.
I have to find it and when I do I will post it to see how it compares.
— Philip Henika May 23, 19:10 #
I am wondering what people are thinking here in terms of policy stated above directed strategically toward a particular country. My guess would be Pakistan – any arguments?
— Philip Henika May 23, 21:53 #
I think for it to work as a deterent in the medium term, raids in and out means Every Country-Including Pakistan.
But In and Out in Pakistan might mean 24-hours, with very short range objectives.
Thanks for your comments.
— Shimron Issachar May 25, 12:33 #