The Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas) Now Faces Difficult Decisions
One of the most interesting things about the current Hamas move to consolidate its power in the Palestinian territories is the question of how that move will play with Salafi/wahhabist groups in their love-hate relationship with Hamas.
It is necessary to remember two things: Hamas remains directly tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, both organically and officially, as described in the Hamas charter. The second is that Hamas and the Salafist groups have been in a deep and bitter dispute because of Hamas’ decision to participate in the elections last year. There have been other spats before, but this was a different level of denunciation and recrimination.
Ayman Zawahiri was particularly vocal in publicly denouncing Hamas at the time in the strongest possible terms. On the various jihadi and Hamas web forums that routinely cross-linked to each other the feud grew so bitter that such cross-pollination has dropped off considerably. Hamas has thrown jihadi commentators off Hamas sites, and the jihadis have reciprocated. (Evan Kohlmann is the authority on this).
So an important question, to me, is, what now? The elections are now a moot point and the unity government now a thing of the past. The Muslim Brotherhood’s sole, overt armed branch has participated in and won elections, but has proved unable to co-exist in a coalition with secular partners.
Hamas has asserted itself militarily and shown a willingness to fight not only against Israel, but against other Palestinian groups that do not share its vision of the future. In the direct clash between (deeply corrupt) secularists and those driven by religious zeal who believe the existence of Israel is an affront to Allah, the secularists had almost no chance.Some in Hamas are openly discussing making the Gaza Strip Islamic state.
I would think this would give pause to those who repeatedly say that the Ikhwan could and would accept the results of elections and have and will work with non-Islamist coalition partners to advance a broad agenda.
Hamas showed that the discourse of dialogue and coalition building and the strategy participating in a process its ideologues cannot completely control, will be thrown out if the chance for armed victory emerges.
As destructive as the fighting with Fatah has been in general, it will open the door for a thawing of relations between Hamas and the Salafist groups. The future of that relationship should tell us a great deal about what the real intentions are of Hamas, and by extension, the Muslim Brotherhood.
The tension between Hamas and the al Qaeda affiliated groups has centered not on the long-term goals (the destruction of Israel, the re-establishment of the Caliphate etc.), but on the tactics to achieve those goals. It appears those tactics are more closely aligned now than before.
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A Small Step Forward The Growing Fragmentation of the Islamist Structures
I’ve seen an interesting information on president Abbas requesting Israel to allow arms import to Palestinian territories, to help Fatah in struggle with Hamas. Israel refused arguing that arms could fall in the hands of Hamas, but they are considerning to send IDF to reinforce Fatah. Unfortunately, I don’t remember the site where the article was.
Looking at the map, West Bank, controlled by Fatah is much bigger than Gaza strip. I think that Abbas can gather much more resources in a long term, in order to deal with Hamas.
If Fatah manage to maintain control over West Bank, then it might be an oppurtunity. The extreme and moderate (???) Palestinian factions would be geographically divided, and sanctions could be directed against more extreme wing.
DG
— Drazen Gemic Jun 15, 10:54 #
Nice one Doug, and very germane!
Will the Ikhwan, seeing that Armed “Stuggle” actually works, vice the Taqiyah-facade “peaceful means”, will they be more inclined in places like Egypt & Syria, to drop those so-called “peaceful means” now?
Does Zawahiri, do an about face now, and embrace Hamas?
Long term, I think that Abbas, and the Israelis should encourage the Egyptians to Annex the Gaza, and turn it into an Egyptian Palestian province!
Heck, Arafat, as was his cousin the Grand Mufit of Jeruselum, were both Egyptians anyhow!
Nice analysis though, Doug!
— Dale in Atlanta Jun 15, 11:40 #
I saw that report, too. That Fatah had asked for arms – I think it came from some of the war correspondant bloggers – Jerusalem or conflict blogger maybe?
Anyway, It would be a major mistake for the IDF to weigh-in in any militray way – It would strip away an credibility that Fatah has among Palestinians. Food or medical supplies maybe, delivered through an aid agency.
Hamas is already calling Fatah infidels, playing the garqhad name game.
Hamas now has their walled in separate state now, Gazistan I heard that the IDF now callas it.
Let’s see how well they can run the city-state, feed it and operate it.
Let’s watch and see how international Ikhwan groups weigh in to help. Lets see who exposes themselves there, and who decides to back off and let this thing sort- out.
Douglas, what are your thoughts on How this current Hamas dynamic will interact with what is happening in Lebanon?
— Shimron Issachar Jun 15, 11:50 #
I agree with Shimron on this one; let the Gazans stew in the mess they made of their own piece fo land; no Israeli military action; if the Egyptians won’t take over them, let them sit there and “rot”!
We’ll see if an “Islamic state” can survive on it’s own for awhile??
— Dale in Atlanta Jun 15, 12:20 #
My fear has always been progress toward ‘Islamic unification’ e.g. success by one terrorist group may serve to dissolve differences to a certain extent.
In this case, I fear that Hamas’ “Gazistan” may allow for the entry of (more?) Al Qaeda operatives into Palestine which was how it worked and has continued to work for ~20 years in Afghanistan.
— Philip Henika Jun 15, 12:47 #
Shimron, I agree that IDF intervention would be a mistake. Actually, Israel has called for international force to maintain order in Gaza. I assume that it means that they don’t consider military option any more.
International Ikhwan groups can offer symbolic gestures only, not any significant aid.
I think that Hamas still wants coalition with Fatah, but with ballance shifted towards Hamas, based on situation on the ground. They believe that they will have better position in future negotiations. But, it is possible that there will be no negotiations in the future.
— Drazen Gemic Jun 15, 14:41 #
Doug: read this article:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070615.GAZATICKTOCK15/TPStory/TPInternational/Africa/
and notice this para at the end:
Mr. Khader gave credit to the international Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot, for “never being stingy” in providing financial and other aid to the Palestinian wing. Hamas also makes its own weapons, he said, including the Qassam rockets it uses to attack Israel.
That’s for the naysayers who continue the fiction that the Ikhwan is a “peaceful” group!
— Dale in Atlanta Jun 15, 16:24 #
Drazen;
Dale made my point; so skipping over the party line, tell me really what do you mean by a “symbolic gesture?”
— Shimron Issachar Jun 15, 17:32 #
I wouldn’t predict things so easily. it seems everything Isreal or the U.S. does has the opposite affect. who wouldn’t say Fatah could be overthrown in the west bank as well. lets not forget there are more than 2 factions in philistine.
— a muslim Jun 15, 18:23 #
Let me understand: You are suggesting that the US started this fight up between Hamas and Fatah?
— Shimron Issachar Jun 15, 18:35 #
I don’t agree with your statement ”[Hamas] has proved unable to co-exist in a coalition with secular partners.” IIRC, the money needed to run Palestine on a day to day basis was cut off immediately by the US, and Europe and never reinstated. We also actively worked to actively undermine Hamas. I would suggest that that might have had a tad something to do with the state the Palestinians find themselves, as well as Hamas and Fatah. Also, Fatah was soundly defeated at the polls in a democratic election largely because of Fatah’s corruption. Is anyone surprised that Fatah rebelled when they lost their various positions in the “security” forces?
I’m not under the illusion that Hamas is UNICEF. But I think this is much more complicated than a good guys vrs bad guys issue. And we are not blameless.
— vachon Jun 15, 23:11 #
Off topic: the government has figured out that there’s fraud in the mortgage business and Citibank bank made a statement two days ago (little noticed in the press) that they would be able to weather the mortgage shake-out in good shape. Color me shocked.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/16/technology/16fraud.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
— vachon Jun 16, 12:41 #
vachon;
watta cow! remember the immediate surge in violence and refusals to negotiate anything? Hamas got exactly where it hoped it would. Now it just has to prevent the entire civilian population from fleeing Gaza. To Israel.
— Brian H Jun 16, 22:18 #
Perhaps this will be an opportunity for Egypt to reassert control over Gaza. While the fighting in Gaza does not exacerbate tensions within Israel, it strengthens tensions between Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood. Mubarak may feel the need to intervene to restore his prestige. In any point, Gaza by itself or in combination with the West Bank is economically unviable, and union with Egypt is required to halt a humanitarian disaster
— Herbert Kaine Jun 16, 23:08 #
Shimron, “symbolic gesture” means that their funds are probably nothing compared to money needed to run Gaza Strip as a state. They can spare few milions $, at best,
— Drazen Gemic Jun 18, 15:03 #