More Homegrown Jihadists in Germany
It is interesting to note that
two of the three suspects arrested in Germany for a possible plot were homegrown jihadists, not foreigners.
This points to the growing trend before toward self-starting individuals who feel they must act on behalf of al Qaeda, without necessarily ever coming into contact with the mother ship of the organization.
These self-starting groups that come from within their own population are far harder to detect that foreigners who may stand out.
Being converts, they are often more radical than the local population, either because they were recruited in a radical environment, they feel the need to prove they are worthy of their new religion, or any number of reasons.
The arrests also highlight the dangers posed by websites, often in the United States, that offer instruction in how to wage individual strikes against high-profile targets. These sites provide not only instructions but also motivational messages to encourage the person to act.
Self-starting groups offer weaknesses as well as strengths.
While the number of actors and potential actors proliferates, the level of skill is often low and the chances of dealing with the groups rises.Most of the known homegrown groups have still traveled to Pakistan or Afghanistan (now, perhaps Iraq), for spiritual guidance and training. This affords opportunities to follow travel leads that develop.
The German jihadis were initially placed under surveillance because they were spotted casing targets, something that more professional groups would likely do more carefully. They must amass the supplies they need in small groups, making suspicious transactions easier to detect.
In addition, more hierarchical structures can learn lessons, reflect on failed actions and adapt to avoid repeating the same mistakes. Individual groups, however, seldom have a chance to conduct successful “after-action” reports. Either they are dead or they are captured, and in either case are largely neutralized for future actions.
But there is a great strength in the decentralized operations. Creative people can think far outside the box, and devise new methods and areas of attack that an organized structure might not adopt or accept.
There is little communication that can be intercepted because the groups do not need to receive instructions, can finance themselves, and the stopping of one group will not necessarily have any impact in stopping other small groups from acting. The groups can strike whenever they see a target of opportunity, rather than waiting for an order to act.
This is a new world, the world of starfish and not spiders. How we adapt will determine how successful we are in avoiding future attacks like 9-11 or worse.
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Minnesota-based Website Tells How to Join Al Qaeda, Kill High Value Targest The Importance and Unimportance of Al Qaeda Videos
Bring in the Al Qaeda clowns again:
“The three suspects allegedly underwent training with the Islamic Jihad Union—reportedly an offshoot of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan—at a camp in Pakistan, and then went to Germany to form their cell. The Germans arrested the suspects when they appeared to be preparing to construct at least one car bomb using 1,500 pounds of hydrogen peroxide—a key ingredient in TATP, which was used in the improvised explosive devices in the 2005 London Underground bombings.” – Stratfor
Hydrogen peroxide is the key poor choice – Pakistan trainers apparently don’t know about 3%, 30% and 70% peroxide (but I bet you folks do because we have been through the discussion of the TATP threat before).
Regardless, a “resurgent” (supposedly wiser) Al Qaeda blowing themselves up with TATP? Come on German authorities, you will have to better than hype.
— Philip Henika Sep 5, 22:59 #
A new world indeed, one in which traditional law-enforcement methodology is rendered obsolete. In my view, it is well past the time for taking the high road when dealing with the various subversive factions present in this country. A respect of persons and/or rights is not necessarily in order if one considers whether such respect is well-founded. Enemies at home continue to hide behind our Bill of Rights while recruiting for, planning, and attempting to carry out acts of mass carnage and chaos. As Doug has pointed out, keyword is adaptability. In the case of our enemies, they’ve readily adapted to the freedoms inherent in this democracy, using those freedoms not for the purpose for which they were intended but as tools to effect lawlessness and disorder. In my view, adaptability from our perspective consists of sloughing off ingrained notions of noble cause and understanding that not all who reside within our boundaries are deserving of carte blanche privilege. Rights come with responsibility and it seems to me that those who use those rights against our country and its people are no longer deserving of them.
— Gigi Sep 6, 00:23 #
Islamic terror’s hydralike form threatens us in many ways, not the least of which is its provocation of calls for curtailment of our Constitutional rights.
Meanwhile, these jihadis get their ideas somewhere, and the Saudi Royal Family funds and protects that somewhere in the University of Medina and other places within their kingdom.
— Yankee Doodle Sep 6, 08:20 #
The analyses are incongruous i.e. if the only threat of a “resurgent” and incompetant Al Qaeda is to themselves then why do analyses (hype?) conclude that they constitute a new threat to the German people? The same incongruity existed for the England bombings.
— Philip Henika Sep 6, 08:51 #
Once again, Philip is parroting the Leftist-Carteresque-Clintonian Party-line:, that nothing is threat to the US, it’s all Bush’s fault, and downplaying any and all terror plots uncovered as the work of rank amateurs and bumbling buffoons.
What Philip will never admit, is that those “bumbling buffoons”; thanks to enablers like his boss Jimmy Carter, and his idol, Bill Clinton, and other Anti-American Leftists, have empowered these people to kill literally 10’s of Thousands of people around the world over the past 6 years.
Those “bumbling buffoons”, using nothing but Box Cutters, killed 3000 people on 9/11; but again, for a Leftist like Philip, that’s acceptable because America is EVIL, and we deseved it!
BTW, as this para from a news report shows, Philip does not have a clue of what he speaks about:
“Over the course of the next six months, authorities observed them gathering a dozen containers of 35 percent hydrogen peroxide solution, which officials said can easily be combined with other material to make explosives.”
— Dale in Atlanta Sep 6, 09:12 #
Here are three paragraphs from Stratfor’s “The
Militant Plot in Germany” September 05, 2007 14 08
GMT:
“The three suspects allegedly underwent training with
the Islamic Jihad Union—reportedly an offshoot of
the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan—at a camp in
Pakistan, and then went to Germany to form their cell.
The Germans arrested the suspects when they appeared
to be preparing to construct at least one car bomb
using 1,500 pounds of hydrogen peroxide—a key
ingredient in TATP, which was used in the improvised
explosive devices in the 2005 London Underground
bombings.
“In reality, these would-be jihadists likely would
have blown themselves up before they had manufactured
enough explosives for even a single VBIED. TATP is
unstable and needs to be used when it is fresh. If the
plotters did not blow themselves up, the first batches
of TATP likely would have decomposed by the time they
finished the last batches. The TATP used by the second
group of London bombers in 2005 failed to function for
similar reasons. Over the years, Palestinian militants
learned the hard way that TATP is better made and
employed in small batches and used in such things as
suicide vests, rather than in the large amounts
necessary for VBIEDs.”
“Bringing down this cell is significant, and should be
interpreted as more than a wake-up call by the
Germans. By no means is Germany clear of the militant
threat, however. In fact, this shows how far developed
the threat is. The participation of German converts to
Islam also reflects a trend of homegrown jihadists, or
jihadists residing in European countries, becoming
more active.”
My question is one of possible incongruity i.e. does
the conclusion that a resurgent yet apparently
incompetant Al Qaeda (but obviously not “Al Qaeda
Prime” – Stratfor) justifiy a “wake-up” call
assessment?. I thought the purpose of marginalization
of Al Qaeda was to give less credit than they deserve – not more. As I recall, the same question could have
been asked re: UK bombers i.e. the doctors.
— Philip Henika Sep 6, 11:26 #
The topic of centralized or decentralized nature of AQ has been discussed here several times.
I believe that it depends on communication opportunities available to AQ leadership. When leadership has more freedom and more options, the structure becomes more centralized. When they are cut off, the rest of the organization has to take care of themselves, and the structure is less centralized.
If I was an analyst I would try to link it to the situation in Pakistan, where the AQ leadership is located currently. When the treaty between Pak government and jihadists was in power, there was more freedom for AQ. Since Pak president made a deal with secular opposition, the treaty is canceled, and jihadist are under more pressure. The roads are blocked by military, and, probably, there are restrictions on using others means of communications like phones, maybe Internet. That part of Pakistan was never very well connected to the rest of the world, anyway.
I’d like to see what the rest of you think about it.
DG
— Drazen Gemic Sep 6, 12:57 #
Drazen:
”...Islamic Jihad Union—reportedly an offshoot of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan…”
As you may recall, the US, NATO and Radio Free Europe have been kicked out of Uzbekistan making it essentially a blank page in terms of the public perception of progress re: GWOT.
And, no, Al Qaeda wannabes are not Al Qaeda – whether they are centralized or not.
— Philip Henika Sep 6, 13:27 #
Philip:
I am not quite sure what is your point. Far as I know IMU consider themselves part of AQ. How much and on what terms they coordinate with the leadership, I don’t know, but I guess that AQ has some influence.
If you are trying to say that not all jihadists have direct connection with AQ leadership, it is probably true. On the other hand, I don’t remember AQ denying any leaf organization that proclaimed itself linked to it.
I base my thoughts on Zawahiri letter to late Zarqawi, that was intercepted and made public. I think that leadership is trying to exert more control when they consider something more important. I guess that independent funding is the factor, too. It is obvious that AQ is considered a moral authority among majority of the jihadists in the world, and if they put an explicit request, it is hard to turn them down. Basically, I think it is politics, like everywhere else.
I am inclined to compare it to the relation between former Soviet Union and other communist regimes in the world.
DG
— Drazen Gemic Sep 6, 14:42 #
Drazen –
Recent “Al Qaeda” plots in Germany and England are sloppy but the global leadership does not portray these attacks as such. The global leadership instead gives these clowns the same fear factor that was given to the likes of KSM and Ramsy Youseff. The dictum of ‘fear sells’ still rules with Al Sahab messages from Zawahiri and OBL whereas Condi can’t get op/eds published. So, why can’t the people get a fair and accurate assessment of Al Qaeda i.e. why the hype re: the machinery of Al Qaeda? Is there intervention re: Al Qaeda plots without public knowledge with the idea of altering public perception such that funds can be justified and votes cast? How can a B52, for example, fly nukes across the US by “accident” – an incident ignorant supposedly of
proper protocols? Finally, I wanted to say that Al Qaeda wanabes are a class unto themselves (especially on the Internet) but perhaps I wasn’t clear.
— Philip Henika Sep 6, 15:32 #
Philip, I think that we are discussing two different matters. I wanted to reply to spider-starfish analogy, trying to say that terrorists employ both models, depending on the pressure they have upon themselves.
You are trying to say that terrorist threat is exaggerated. I did not comment that, but you replied to me. I think that it is a misunderstanding.
DG
— Drazen Gemic Sep 6, 16:39 #
OK Drazen – no problem…
Note; The Germans did intervene:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20609164/
“In July security officials had – without the cell’s
knowledge – diluted the content of the vats to reduce
the potential explosive power of hydrogen peroxide.”
Action to foil plot took nine months
Financial Times
By Hugh Williamson in Berlin
Updated: 7:41 p.m. PT Sept 5, 2007
— Philip Henika Sep 6, 17:27 #
‘Wannabe’ or ‘bona fide’ is significant how? From my perspective, impetus is keyword. I fully understand decentralization ramifications; however, the crux of this issue seems to me to be the upholding of Bin Laden and Al Qaeda as the model to which all should aspire. My belief is that as long as such an ‘example’ remains at the forefront, every would-be jihadist will be emboldened regardless of direct ties (or lack of them) to Al Qaeda. Decentralization absolutely makes the task of identifying and capturing these crazies more difficult; nevertheless, it doesn’t seem particularly surprising that such a spin-off has been generated. Bin Laden’s hatred for all things Western has played well to those who are delusional enough to believe that going back to the 7th Century is the way forward. Go figure – but let’s not underestimate Al Qaeda’s influence in the process.
— Gigi Sep 7, 04:53 #
Gigi –
What I want is an accurate and complete estimate of Al Qaeda influence but also the United States’ counterterrorism efforts in this regard. If the UK and Germany bombings are not the work of what Stratfor calls “Al Qaeda Prime” (and you know enough to know what that means) then the evaluation changes with regard to the estimate of Al Qaeda’s influence. For instance, this week it was obvious that the training these guys got in Pakistan did not include the proper selection of an explosive i.e. TATP. The Germans intervened. They simply snuck in and diluted their peroxide vats – threat over.
— Philip Henika Sep 7, 14:16 #