Somalia: The Next Step?
Ethiopia’s quick dispatch the Council of Islamic Courts in Somalia has opened the way for the next step, which is seldom any easier than the first: rebuilding shattered institutions while providing the security that brought the Courts the support that propelled the radical group to power in the first place.
The new government is in a very difficult position-beholden to a foreign power that will soon be resented as an occupying force, little leverage in negotiating with the different clans and warlords, and unknown in most of the country.
In addition, the new government faces the prospect of a prolonged conflict with the rump of the Islamist movement, and the strong possibility that the remnant will receive support from Islamist movements around the world, including al Qaeda. This group, now scattered, will be able to regroup, as the Taliban has, if the new government cannot or does not act decisively to meet the inflated expectations of a restless and anxious population.One of the keys will be international support and recognition, with support clearly tied to the government’s willingness to take the necessary steps to rebuild a nation that has been without a central government for 15 years.
It was the Court’s ability to provide security for businesses, ordinary citizens and international trade that created the atmosphere where their excesses were tolerated. If the new government cannot provide that in the very near term, it will fail one of the first, most crucial tests in many people’s mind, and support will erode.
The Courts also provided a semblance of a working judicial system, under sharia law, where the cycle of impunity could be challenged and broken. Again, the new government must fill that void, or risk rapid popular disenchantment.
It is a huge challenge for a government that has done little to prove itself capable of meeting the enormous challenges that it faces. The international community cannot afford to ignore the situation, waffle in its objectives or allow the situation to drift indefinitely.
Ethiopia, at great national cost and considerable risk, took a step of self defense by bearing the brunt of the military side of the equation. But it is severely limited in its ability to assist in the long-term efforts to make sure the threat does not re-emerge in short order. If the international community does not work hard to make the new situation vialbe, the Islamists will be back, and sooner than expected.
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In order to “rebuild” Somalia it will be necessary to reunite families seperated from war. It will be necessary to have leaders in synche with a peacebuilding initiative to improve the health and prosperity of the people. It will be necessary to eliminate corruption in government. There needs to be enough done with regard to “helping people to help themselves”. I hope I am wrong and this kind of plan is in place but I doubt it because it has been in the past misrepresented as being “soft on terrorism”. But if I am right and countermotivation is not considered a valid counterterrorism measure then a generational war will be grown in Somalia and, indeed, militant Islam will be back.
— Philip Henika Jan 2, 22:00 #
Mr. Farah~
How serious is it if this new government doesn’t succeed? I’d appreciate your thoughts…
— Rhonda Jan 2, 22:56 #
The idea of Ethiopia waging this quickie on their own is a bit of a stretch. I cannot prove it but I presume that a sugar daddy, perhaps a known agency may have helped to fund this armed excursion, thus reducing the headache, worries, overhead of U.S Special Forces having to invade an African nation chasing fanatics in the wild arid hills of the Horn of Africa. I am sure this is not the end of the story either. Is it not surprising how little criticism was launched at the Ethiopian Government from the so called peace loving Arab Nations? When one terrorists is wasted in gaza, weeks of condemnations are waged at israel’s IDF, in this case, silence, not a peep!
— TJ Barker Jan 3, 00:04 #
This is all very interesting to observe. Your posting has helped in my understanding…
Thanks.
— Rhonda Jan 3, 02:07 #
I put Somalia peacebuilding into a Google News search and found these recommendations for Somalia “rebuilding”...
http://www.cfr.org/publication/12216/ethiopiaeritrea_proxy_war_in_somalia_risks_broader_regional_conflict_warns_new_council_report.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F135%2Fterrorism
Ethiopia-Eritrea Proxy War in Somalia Risks Broader Regional Conflict, Warns New Council Report
Terrence Lyons
December 14, 2006
Council on Foreign Relations
”...Conflict in the Horn of Africa is escalating rapidly as power struggles within Somalia are exacerbated by military support that both Ethiopia and Eritrea give to the opposing parties there. Ethiopia backs the weak interim government; Eritrea sponsors the Islamic militants fighting to overthrow it. Because the United States has accused Somalia of harboring al-Qaeda suspects, “the Ethiopian-Eritrean proxy conflict increases the opportunities for terrorist infiltration of the Horn and East Africa and for ignition of a larger regional conflict,” warns a new Council Special Report…”
Recommendations:
“Given the stakes and the role the region plays with regard to the Arabian Peninsula and counterterrorism, the importance of democratization promotion globally, and the growing attention to the region on Capitol Hill and within diaspora communities, disengagement is not an option.” Lyons calls for a new and more comprehensive U.S. policy. Recommendations include:
Committing to existing multilateral agreements.
“Washington should remain committed to the multilateral Witnesses to the Algiers Agreement and [the Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission (EEBC)] framework, pressing Ethiopia to demarcate the border and Eritrea to return to talks and lift restrictions on [the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)].”
Coordinating increased financial support.
“The U.S. government should also be prepared to offer substantial financial backing and use its influence within the international financial institutions to support demobilization, cross-border trade and communications, and normalization of regional relations.”
Pressuring both countries to introduce political rights.
“Once the border issue is settled, the United States should pressure Asmara to permit basic political rights and Ethiopia to release political prisoners, enter into a dialogue with the full range of opposition leaders, and return to the freedoms seen in early 2005.”
Making foreign aid to both countries conditional.
“Development and military assistance programs should be tied to progress on governance issues and Washington should be prepared to reduce or slow non-humanitarian programs if political conditions deteriorate further.”
Establishing robust democratization programs.
“Well-funded programs on democratization and rule of law should be offered to support positive political openings. Washington should reach out to the wide spectrum of opposition groups both within Ethiopia and in the diaspora and encourage them to pursue strategies of peaceful electoral competition, rather than armed struggle.”
Supporting long-term regional peacebuilding initiatives.
“The United States, international donors, and international organizations should support long-term regional peacebuilding initiatives. Building new relationships between communities split by the militarized border, groups displaced by the conflict, and families divided by loyalties to rival states will provide a context for new thinking and increased confidence about the formal peace process and will help build healthier bilateral relations after the border dispute is settled.”
For the full report, visit www.cfr.org/horn_of_africa/
Terrence Lyons is associate professor at the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution and codirector of the Center for Global Studies at George Mason University
— Philip Henika Jan 4, 16:50 #