What is Russia's Real Game?
In an increasingly confused world, it has become apparent that Russia, for all its talk, is consistently positioning itself against the interests of the United States, Europe-and often on the side of Islamist radicals.
It is not just true in the U.N. Security Council with Iran, where, along with China, Russia is protecting an important client despite what such support means.
It is also true in Lebanon (directly and through Iran), the republic of Georgia and Somalia, where Russian weapons merchants, including but not limited to Viktor Bout, are supplying large amounts of weapons to fuel wars that will have a devastating impact on entire regions. In each case the beneficiary is going to be enemies of development, democracy and human rights. The beneficiaries will be radical Islamists.
President Bush famously warned that in the war on terrorism, you are with us or against us. The Russians, it seems, like the Pakistanis, Saudis and many others, are both. Russia is a particularly troubling case because of the quantitiy and quality of weapons its possesses, as well as the nuclear arsenal at least nominally under its control.
It is not entirely clear to me what Russia stands to gain from feeding the chaos. Maybe chaos itself is the end. Maybe establishing geopolitical relevance in areas the U.S. has more or less abanonded is appealing. But, as Chechnya should have shown, any dealing with radical Islam is bound to be a losing, bloody proposition.
Bout’s recent exploits in Somalia-flying in at last two IL-76 loads of weapons for the most radical, Taliban-like regime in the world-could not take place without the explicit blessing of senior Russian military intelligence officials, using allies to do the actual deals. But the sales and meddling are not independent of the Russian military establishment, often fronted by quasi-official companies that sell weapons to a large list of unofficial Russian state clients.
The weak but official government of Somalia has formally protested the proxy arming of Eritrea, the tiny country that separated from Ethiopia and likely to be a staging area for the Islamist forces in Somalia. The weapons are being delivered are from the former Soviet bloc, by Russian pilots and trainers. This confrontation will become particularly unpleasant if Ethiopia decides that having an Islamist neighbor similar to the Taliban is not to its liking a we have a reprise of the Ertiea-Ethiopia war of the late 1990s that killed tens of thousands of people.
Russian (and Chinese) weapons sales to Iran do not happen by accident. They occur with the full knowledge that these weapons would end up with either a rogue Islamist regime or a proxy army of that regime.
The same can be said for the weapons deliveries to Somalia. Aircraft filled with tens of tons of weapons do not miraculously fall from the sky to Islamist militants bent on expanding and consolidating their regime. More such weapons are on their way, intelligence sources say. It might be time to ask who is supplying the weapons and why.
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The Growing Power of States Within States Two Visitors Who Should Not be Allowed Through the Door
It helps to check stats on the amount of defense contracts and the amount of covert funding that went into Middle East for the last 25 years. You’d be surprised to learn where the weaponry is coming from. Also, read the first 7 pages of the 9-11 comission report.
— Sergei (Russia) Aug 28, 16:36 #
Interesting observations. I’ve been alarmed with Russia’s behavior since they expropriated their largest oil producer. I never did buy the excuse that they did it for back taxes. The only thing I could come up with was perhaps Russia’s dire need for cash.
I agree that Russia’s problems with Islamic fundamentalism should make it think twice concerning their flitations with Somalia and Iran. You raise intriguing questions.
— vachon Aug 28, 17:08 #
After the cold war was declared over and the US claimed victory, I never heard Russia admit defeat. I don’t believe that They have stopped fighting the war. They have changed tactics and allied themselves as subordinate to China but they have not given up the fight. With China as an ally they feel they can defeat us economically and militarily. This is what they have to gain by dealing with known terrorist entities. It is STILL US against THEM. A few of the players have changed or switched sides. Europe is basically a non-factor. They will succomb to whoever holds the biggest stick and do what they are told. Because the problem is in their backyard they will try to appease it. When it goes volatile they will side with it. Unfortunately, this is ominous for our future.
— James Biga Aug 28, 17:50 #
High commodity prices are driving the current Russian strategy (as well as that of Iran).
Keep this in mind, no Russian gas no European economy. That’s the reason Europe wont say anything bad on Russia and it’s politics. Then every time when people talk about conflict and “Russian” weapons I think about Transnistria.
— Peter Aug 28, 19:46 #
The responses so far seem to have nailed it. Russia needs to keep its economy ticking over. Doing deals with pariah states isn’t exactly desirable but there ain’t nothing wrong with their money. And if one or more should turn on Russia in the future…..well, Russia will deal with that if and when it happens. In the meantime keep that cash register busy will ya.
— Salad In Aug 29, 00:22 #
I believe that, like mr. Farah says, the chaos itself is the end. Russians believe that they lost a lot of influence in 90’s, and that chaos provides them a chance to win it back.
They lost eastern Europe forever, but maybe hope to win something in other regions.
DG
— Drazen Gemic, Zagreb, Croatia Aug 29, 10:07 #
Russia is a gangster state whose gangsters hate us. Unfortunately, when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet empire collapsed, the Soviets themselves neither experienced any change of heart nor evaporated into thin air. Since we did not try, convict and execute them Nuremburg-style, they remained and eventually reconstituted themselves. Like most gangsters, they are obsessed with settling old scores, whether or not it’s the most rational thing for them to do.
Around the world, we face a common front of criminals, murderers, thieves and meglomaniacs whose schemes we constantly frustrate. They are bound together only by their burning desire to see us humiliated and dead. They don’t care about what happens next. Of course, without us on the scene, they will turn on each other. But that day is not even on their radar screens. In the arrogance of their power, each believes he can deal with the others when the time comes. Our diplomats may not believe it, but a world order crafted by ambition and hatred is lurking just around the corner.
— JER Aug 29, 10:59 #
The ideology never really overcame the imperial impluse in Moscow. Even the “good guys” had trouble letting it go. Look at Britain, after World War Two. The basis of their imperial influence had vanished, during the 20th Century, but they held on for dear life, while it slipped away. I doubt that Russia’s centuries long drive to empire, and the wealth and power that brings, collapsed with the Soviet Union. That’s my theory, and the former Soviet Republics’ nightmare.
— Wally Lind Aug 29, 13:41 #
Remember the rumors about Russia giving Iraq intel about American invasion plans? I joked with a friend that it was their way of saying “Thanks for Afghanistan, Hope you like your stay.” This summer I read “Charlie Wilson’s War” and Stevenn Coll’s “Ghost Wars” and if I was a Russian reading either of those books, it would be hard not to feel that way. So I have to agree a bit w/JER.
Peter’s right too – about the Russian deals to sideline the Europeans and keep their economy going. I recall an article in NYT (mid April) in which in return for lower natural gas prices (but higher than they had been paying) Armenia agreed to give up a crucial section (24 mi., I believe) of a pipeline that could transport Iranian NG. All this against a backdrop an Armenian attempt to thwart Russia by importing gas from Iran and the support given to Iran in UNSC by Russia.
— Mike Aug 29, 17:25 #
Now if you really wanted to screw the west, you’d manuver and plot to get all the oil and gas reserves behind a new iron curtain/Koran curtain. It’s coming.
— igout Aug 29, 18:47 #
Why should Russia support us. Despite years of attacks by the KLA. We dismembered their ally, Serbia, and created an Islam country, Kosavo, in the heart of Europe. We seem to view radical Muslims as terrorists only when they attack our interests.
— Mike Kyle Aug 30, 17:51 #
I don’t understand why Russia supports Iran, an Islamic state dedicated to destroying them (if convenient to do so), when it’s fighting a war with Islamists in Chechnya, who are no doubt being supported by Iran (philisophically, at least).
— Bob Smith Aug 30, 22:56 #
Russia is playing old game of world domination. They are using every asset they think it would help. What will be the results, it is yet to be seen.
Even Iran is playing some variant of that game. I believe that such players do things on purpose and they are predictible to some extent.
The good thing is that they are less likely to do something that will hurt their own interests, just to hurt the oposition.
Al-Qaeda, on the contrary, is the group of lunatic loosers who realy believe that they could and need to change the world. Their sick minds are capable of anything, and they are much less predictive.
DG
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