The War in Somalia Expands as Islamists Promised
The battle for control of Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union has spilled over into an international conflict with Ethiopia and poses a significant threat to the entire Horn of Africa region. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross has posted on some of the details of the military activities.
Yesterday Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, the ICU leader most closely indentified with al Qaeda and bin Laden, said Somalia was now at war with Ethiopia and that “All Somalis should now take part is this struggle against Ethiopia.” The statement came the day after an EU envoy happily proclaimed that both sides had agreed to negotiate an end to the hostilities and that peace was at hand. Someone must be living in an alternate universe where pledges made by radicals with a history of duplicity are viewed binding.
The spread of this war is by design, not accident. In his statement earlier this week (as translated by Laura Mansfieldal Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri went out of his way to signal support for the Islamist movement in Somalia, saying “Brothers in Islam and jihad in Somalia, know that you are the southern garrison of Islam, so don’t allow Islam to be attacked from your flank and know that we are with you and the entire Muslim Umah is with you.”
The conflict is designed not only to establish a space that can be defined as the beginning of the Islamist Caliphate, a necessary physical space from which to launch succeeding holy wars against the unbelievers. It is also aimed at creating widespread instability in a fragile region in East Africa, rich in mineral resources with weak and corrupt central governments.
Osama bin Laden has spoken in the past of the need to open a “third front” with a ground war that will bleed the U.S. military dry. He has argued that the al Qaeda front in Iraq, coupled with the front in Afghanistan/Pakistan, has stretched the U.S. military to its limits. A third front would make triumph in the other two more likely.
The stark disinterest of the United States and most European powers, or serious efforts by other African nations to face the consequences of an Islamist triumph in Somalia is striking and dangerous. The consequences of a regional war are difficult to calculate, but they will be serious.
Ethiopia is going to wade into the conflict in significant ways, but U.S. intelligence has been alarmed by the flow of sophisticated weapons in recent months to the ICU, including surface-to-air missiles, heavy anti-tank weapons and mines, and small arms. The ICU also appears to have at least three Russian helicopter gunships, operating with hired crews, to put into operation.
It may be more than Ethiopia can handle alone, and the conflict has already drawn hundreds of foreign jihadists to Somalia. Thousands more will follow if the region becomes part of the global jihadi battleground.
The jihadists have in the paste been unconcerned with governance in the areas they conquer. Sharia law, based on the Quran, is all that is needed. So they do little to consolidate bureaucratically or in a civil governance sense and unencumbered by the desire to establish a functioning government that could be recognized by the outside world. They simply move on to the next conflict, and let sharia law take care of the rest.
In conversations with U.S. officials recently, several expressed the opinion Somalia was of little interest because it has no strategic importance to the United States. It is a backwater with few natural resources and no government. My response is: What was Afghanistan in the years before 9-11? A failed state with few natural resources of international interest and little preceived strategic value.
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The Rationale of Zawahiri Statements Lessons Learned in 2006
Containment rather than direct (or proxy) intervention may be the correct strategy for this scenario.
The key terrain for terrorists would be the coastline on the Gulf of Aden (thus within striking range of shipping into the Red Sea/ Suez Canal and Djibouti- with Yemen sitting on the other side of the gulf as a useful conduit for arms, people etc etc!!)
Fortunatly these areas are controlled by the self declared Republic of Somaliland and autonomous Puntland.
Both areas offer opportunities for the US and its allies.
Somaliland is looking for recognition as an independent state (de facto it is already and all reports suggest it is relatively stable and prosperous).
Puntland got hit by the 04 Tsunami and is crying out for international aid. It does not seek full independence but autonomous status within a loose Somalia federation.
The US would not need to get involved directly (in fact it should not) but should look at all ways possible for capacity building of local forces (perhaps private contractors could be utilised as training and advisory teams), strenghening of autonomous political institutions as well as economic incentives. The Punt and Somaliland regimes would be prepared to do the fighting themselves if required.
Attention should also be paid to preventing the rump of Somalia exporting terrorism into Kenya and Ethiopia and acts of piracy in the Indian Ocean. These effects can be achieved through border security and surveillance initiatives.This will prove a challenge to achieve completely given the flows of Hawala cash into Somalia from migrant Somlai labour overseas but the objective should at least the aim should be to restrict the inload of heli gun ships etc.
The (former) Transitional authority unfortunatly looks incapable of challenging the Islamic courts and it would probably be best to allow facts on the ground to be fought out in the rump of Somalia rather than providing the ICU with a rallying cry to mobilise the population. An Ethiopian/US Quisling regime will just not work.
With friendly and capable ‘states’ to the North (Somaliland and Puntland) and tight surveillance of import/export to the ICU at least an Afghanistan type refuge for terrorists should be averted. Life will remain fairly miserable in the rump Somalia but then its difficult to help in a state where the government is opposed to international values and the population is fiercely parochial.
One question, where do the aircrews for the ICU heli gunships come from? (Most PMC aircrews operating soviet era air frames in Africa are either South African or Ukranian/ Russian, these would make strange contractors for the ICU!!).
— CB Dec 23, 09:14 #
To CB:
Dealing directly with Somaliland and Puntland could undermine TFG. If they manage to survive next few days, of course.
TFG has international recognition and ICU are insurgents, for now. If Baidoa falls the situation might become opposite, and Somaliland and Puntland could become separatists.
Dealing directly with Puntland and Somaliland could perhaps be a backup solution, if Baidoa falls.
This article shows that the efforts to undermine terrorist funding were not enough. Sofisticated weapons and Mi24 or Mi17/Mi8 gunships, with mercenaries operating them, must be expensive. Somalia is a poor country, so money must have come from the outside.
DG
— Drazen Gemic, Croatia Dec 23, 09:30 #
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/16301743.htm
Posted on Fri, Dec. 22, 2006
U.S. policy in the Horn of Africa may aid al-Qaida,
experts warn
By Jonathan S. Landay and Shashank Bengali
McClatchy Newspapers
”...NAIROBI, Kenya — As fighting intensified Friday
between Somali Islamists and an Ethiopian intervention
force, Western diplomats and experts warned that U.S.
policy in the Horn of Africa – intended to curb
Islamic radicalism – may not only be fueling this
newest conflict, but also may be making it easier for
al-Qaida to gain a foothold in the strategic region…”
— Philip Henika Dec 23, 20:13 #
DG,
As you say I think that the transitional authority will be no more in a few days or at the most will represent a powerless regime holed up under Ethiopian protection.
I accept that the financial funding streams into Somalia are almost impossible to control; the hawala (or informal money trust based money transfer system) is well developed and benefits the many Somali migrant workers remitting money (in fact it keeps the cash economy alive).
My point is that hardware such as helicopter gunships are not as easy to procure and import unless you have licensing. This trade can be controlled through intel gathering, targeted sanctions and physical embargo/ seizure.
I am fascinated as to where the crews for these heli have come from. I am assuming that most Ukranian and South African crews (the most common operators) would not be comfortable with the ICU (and vice versa!!) and so the crews have either come from extremists within the Muslim former soviet republics or ex Mid East air forces or possibly African forces.
I think the time is right to reach out to Puntland and Somaliland now and ensure that training and advise is there for them on the ground before the ICU mounts an allout offensive with a view to gaining access to the Gulf of Aden. Thatw ould make them a far more serious threat to deal with.
— CB Dec 23, 23:09 #
To CB:
I was wondering about the helicopter crews, too.
What am I worried about is legitimacy. If TFG loses legitimacy, next in line to get it is not Puntland, neither Somaliland, but ICU.
If they become legitimate government, they will get more international support, and the ability to import weapons legaly, probably at lower prices than now.
I think that TFG has some value even if it is powerless.
DG
— Drazen Gemic, Croatia Dec 24, 07:48 #
Would the war have “spilled over” absent active intervention by Ethiopia in the internal Somali struggle??? Your “spread of this war is by design” statement presumably is intended to point to Somali jihadists…. However this is not occurring in a vacuum. By its active engagement Ethiopia has brought about this outcome….
— Dumbass Dec 25, 16:23 #
Ethiopia’s gov’t is already dead.
The Crescent will sweep all the way west to the Atlantic coast.
Frank
— Frank Dec 26, 00:17 #
Despite Mr. Frank’s analysis of the situation, the TFG lines apper to be holding. There is even a counteroffensive going on.
I’d like to see the face of that Aweys character. He is defeated again, after ten years, by the same enemy. He was one of the leaders of Al-Itihaad in 96.
Another ten years in vain, and he is not getting any younger as the years go by.
DG
— Drazen Gemic, Croatia Dec 26, 10:49 #