The Looming Confrontation
The panorama of Islamist violence and activism that is surging in several places in the world is not encouraging:
The deteriorating situation in Lebanon, where al Qaeda threatens to retaliate if the Lebanese army attacks Fatah al Islam in the refugee camp; the emergence itself of Fatah al Islam, a Sunni/Salafist group operational in Lebanon; Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi’ite cleric in Iraq, re-emerges after months of silence, to give a fiery sermon denouncing the United States and fanning the flames of Shi’ite violence.In the Palestinian territories, Hamas is again encouraging suicide bombings in Israel and launching daily missile attacks, while waging a parallel war against the secular Fatah government.
In Afghanistan, a new al Qaeda leader is named, perhaps signaling a new version of the core al Qaeda leadership that is emerging (what Peter Bergen would call al Qaeda 3.0)
There is one interesting thing to remember in this panorama, however. Ultimately, as both Shi’ite and Sunni groups grow more confident in their ability to impose a solution by force, their desire to kill each other will likely come to the fore, pitting them against each other and inflicting more damage than the United States could ever hope to do.
One of the few advantages the non-Muslim world has in the current war is that the ideology and theology of hate preached by both the most radical elements in the Shi’ite and Salafist is so exclusive that they will eventually feel the need to heed the command to kill each other as infidels.
One retired former senior CIA official recently described this as akin to the Sino-Soviet split in the Cold War. What ultimately allowed for the fall of Communism was the inability of the two major Communist powers to get past their differences, no matter how petty and obscure those ideological difference appeared to the outside world.
So it is in violent Islamist theological wars. Killing fellow Muslims over a disagreement over who should have led the religion centuries ago strikes many of us outside the religion as still killing people over the papal successions in the Middle Ages. But it is very real to those involved.
This was perhaps among the great contribution of Sayyed Qutb, the theology of being able declare other Muslims takfir or an apostate. As an apostate, one is a legitimate target for divine sanction, including execution.
Iran, through Moqtada al-Sadr and multiple other channels, seeks to create a Shi’ite state in Iraq. Iran, although far behind the Chinese, is trying to invest in Shi’ite outreach programs in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.
It was the establishment of a Shi’ite theocratic state in Iran in 1979 that triggered Saudi Arabia’s massive global wahhabist campaign. Iran was seen (and is still seen) as a mortal enemy of the Sunni salafist/wahhabist theology. The fear of Iranian/Shi’ite expansion is a major driving force in Middle Eastern politics now.
At the same time, al Qaeda leaders have repeatedly spoken against Shi’ites as apostates. There have been tactical alliances and Iran still protects some senior al Qaeda officials, but that should not be confused with love or friendship. To many in the al Qaeda camp, the Shi’ites are a dangerous enemy. The debate has not been over whether to kill Shi’ites, but whether one should first get rid of the “far enemy” in the United States or the “near enemy” in the form of the corrupted Islamist government in Saudi Arabia.
But make no mistake. Ultimately the wahhabists view the Shi’ites as takfir, who must be wiped out or brought into submission. The Shi’ite theocrats feel the same way about the Sunni. This close-minded religious hatred may weaken the movement that, writ large, wants to destroy us. Perhaps they will destroy each other instead.
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A Look At the Polls, Some Good News, Some Not What is Missing in the Sudan Sanctions
Let’s see how this in-fighting goes.
points to watch:
-will al Qaeda try bring in foreign fighters to help the refugees in Northern Labanon?
-What role will Syria play?
-How will Iran weigh in, if at all?
-What are the brother hood bloggers saying, and in contrast what will the brotherhood do?
What will Iran do?
-What will the Hidden Imam watcher-prophets do:
Those guys have always send pre-texting signals before Iran moves.
— Shimron Issachar May 25, 19:45 #
According to Seymour Hersh, the US and our ally Saudi Arabia are supporting the sunni in the Palestinian camps to be a counter-force to shia Hezbollah. The US learned nothing from 9/11. The status quo remains. Cheney the oil man is still in bed with the Saudis despite the over-whelming role Saudi Arabia has had in contributing to terrorism. Think about it.
— Dave May 25, 23:44 #
I Read what he said. It find alot of conclusion with no facts.
If Saudi wanted to do this, they need no money from the US.
The few fighters in Lebanon will be quickly Crushed by Lebanon and Hizbolla.
Moqta al Sadar Agreed to a peace plan with the Iraq government..
Interesting accusation, but it sounds like Hizbollah or al Qaeda disinformation to me.
But, again, let’s see how it plays out.
— Shimron Issachar May 26, 01:06 #
May sound cynical, but in real world alliances are forged on interests, not on similar ideology.
It quite often that groups with similar ideology have conficting interests. They are getting resources from the same base, they seek supporters from the same people. In fact, their interests are conflicting.
Most of the time the ideology is a mean to promote certain interests . Kind of marketing.
DG
— Drazen Gemic May 26, 07:58 #
Shimron & Drazen: pay absolutely NO attention to this Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi rhetoric from “Dave”.
If he is the same “Dave”, as I suspect he is, from over at Captain’s Quarter’s Blog, this is par for the course for him. He suffers from reflexive srrender syndrome, and a viseral hate of his own country that is magnified by BDS disease!
IGNORE, IGNORE, IGNORE!
— Dale in Atlanta May 26, 10:00 #
Saudi Arabia is not an easy ally to have, but it is still wiser to have them as allies, rather than as enemies.
— Drazen Gemic May 27, 09:46 #
Again – Nothing I am reading from Dave or anyone leads me to believe this Saudi American Alliance to fight the shites.
Why does Saudi Need the US at all?
— Shimron Issachar May 27, 15:00 #
I am not a US citizen, but I am quite sure that United States are not making alliances with or against particular religious sects.
Hizbullah is an organization that claims to defend and represent interests of Shiite in Lebanon. Is it true ? I don’t think so. Last summer they triggered a war that has taken many lives, just for sake of their narrow political interests. They are clearly a disruptive force in Lebanon.
US and Saudi Arabia are both opposed to Hizbullah. Are they cooperating ? I don’t know, maybe.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt have additional concern for Sunni sect. Are they affecting US politics ? I don’t know, but, probably, yes, to some extent. On the other hand, the whole World is affected by ME events for decades, and there is no escape from that, unless somebody knows a way to move to another planet.
— Drazen Gemic May 28, 18:01 #
looking for some help: Who can tell me the religious signficance of this?
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=nw20070529172120672C590334
— Shimron Issachar May 29, 16:48 #
Shimron: Hi, interesting story there!
Problem with Islam in Africa, south of the Sahara, is that it is heavily influenced/tainted by Paganism, Animism, and even Christianity and Judaism and Hinduism, depending upon the Islamic community in question.
This is just like Christianity in Central American, heavily influenced by Pre-Spanish invasion Incan, Aztec or other religions.
Regardless, two things in the story stand out to me.
The murdered lady’s name is “Aysha”; which in and of itself, important, if we’re dealing with a mainstream Islamic family.
Sunni Muslims never name their daughter’s “Aisha”; goes back to the split with the Shi’ites; so, based upon this, her family could, or should, be Shi’ite.
The coin on the eye thing is a bit perplexing.
That was a Greek/Roman custom, coins on the eyes after death, to pay the “ferryman” to take the departed soul across the river Styx!
This custom eventually make it’s way into some Jewish and Christian circles, where it was transformed into covering the eyes with coins, to prevent people from seeing their Own deaths captured in the eyes of the dead!
I’m not sure however, if, and how widespread this practice could be in Africa today.
But, Africans both Christian and Muslim and Animist, believe in the “Evil Eye”, as do a lot of Muslim sociesties such as Eygpt, for example.
One covered, could be an attempt, to block out the “Evil Eye” of the deceased.
But, in general, the covering of the eye, or eyes, by a coin, when deceased is not a normal Islamic practice.
Which means, the murderer, may not have been Muslim.
If you ever hear more on this, please let me know.
— Dale in Atlanta May 30, 12:36 #
I think this is good theory but do you have any indicators that it is going to explode into real confrontation (outside of Iraq) in the broader ME?
— Ray Robison May 30, 17:05 #